Breaking News: UN Sanctions

The United Nations unanimously adopted a new round of sanctions Monday, targeting the import of oil and North Korean labor. The resolution, in the words of American Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Hailey, says “the world will never accept a nuclear North Korea,” (Wall Street Journal).

The sanctions adopted targeted a wide variety of industries. They placed a ban on North Korean textiles; limited import of oil to North Korea; and targeted North Korean labor, imposing a “humanitarian” clause for  future labor and letting all workers on contracts beginning before the imposition of the sanctions to continue work. This round is a watered down version of suggestions circulated by America following North Korea’s nuclear test (CNN).

The question, as with all sanctions, is the quality of implementation. The “humanitarian” loophole has caused concern in the past and made implementing sanctions difficult. It is also unclear how cooperative China will be after forcing other states to water down the resolution. Though strong, the overall effectiveness of the sanctions will be a question to follow throughout the next few months.

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Breaking News: Missiles Again

North Korea has launched another missile today, its second one this week. Japan’s NHK broke news of the launch, and told its citizens to be safe. The missile reportedly flew over Japan, and is most likely a show of strength by Pyongyang. (Yonhap Reporting). I am following the test and will add it to my second missile test analysis post.

Breaking News: A New Set of Launches

North Korea reportedly launched several missiles from Gangwando Province into the East Sea. The launch comes as South Korea and the United States are engaging in military drills on the peninsula, a time always fraught with high tensions and tough rhetoric.

Trump has yet to respond to the launch. Instead, the American president is currently at Camp David, monitoring Hurricane Harvey as it makes landfall in Texas. (In other news, I’ve been a little obsessed with Harvey as my hometown will be hit by parts of the storm.)

I will work on an update to this test and will have my ICBM analysis up soon. Thank you all for being patient.

Breaking News: North Korea Missile Test

North Korea conducted a missile test on Saturday, taking off from Pukchang, South Korean media reported. The missile, supposedly a Pukguksong scud, is the same missile which was tested on the 16th, and was the second failed test this month (Yonhap*).

The test comes as saber rattling has made he situation tense. In past week, THAAD made its way to Seongju, Trump called on Korea to pay $1 billion for the system and said withdrawal from the KORUS FTA is a possibility, North Korea released a cryptic propaganda video, and, earlier today, Rex Tillerson reiterated that all options are on the table but a diplomatic solution is favorable. Korea is also in the throngs of a election cycle which may drastically shift the political leanings of the Blue House.

So far their is no statements regarding the missile test. The UN is likely to condemn the test, as Trump will. Other nations will likely join in the condemnation. China is likely to continue a push for restraint while attempting to coax Pyongyang to give up its missile and nuclear programs.

Breaking News: North Korean Projectile

North Lorea has launched an unknown projectile into the East Sea. The South Korean NSC is discussing the matter. More details to come later today.

Daily Update–April 3

South Korea

Politics — South Korea, the United States, and Japan kicked off joint drills to counter North Korean submarines on Monday. South Korea is dispatching the Kang Gam Chan destroyer to the three-day long exercise (Yonhap). The drills come at a time of heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula. They are a result of dialogue in December, following North Korean SLBM tests last year (Korea Times). The drills will focus on searching, identifying, and tracking a mock North Korean submarine.

Moon Jae-in won the Democratic Party nomination in the race to the Blue House. Moon swept the primaries and secured 57% of the vote. An Hee-jong won 21.5% and Lee won 21.2% (Korea Times). Moon’s blowout win was expected, as he has been steady at the top of national polls throughout the nomination process and since the impeachment motion passed the National Assembly. Many polls, such as a Gallup Korea Poll conducted the Friday before the Court’s decision, has placed Moon with almost double the next candidate’s approval rating. In the Gallup Poll, Moon secured a 32% approval rating while An Hee-jong took a meager 17%. Ahn Cheol-soo, another leading candidate only secured 9% in the poll (Business Insider).

Economy— South Korea’s first online bank opened on Monday, the first addition to Korea’s banking sector in 25 years. Interest in the bank was promising, as 20,000 new people opened accounts and 1,000 loans were issued. K-Bank is targeting the mid-rate loan market, known as those with a loan score of 4-7 on a scale of 1 to 10 (Joongang Ilbo). K-Bank hopes to offer less burdensome rates through its cost-cutting measures. Kakao Bank, K-Bank’s main competitor, is expected to gain approval soon.

Culture— For the K-pop fans of the world, Seo Taiji, a legendary artist in Korea, will hold a 25-year anniversary concert in September. The concert will take place on September 2, and will be a one-day event (Yonhap). Seo Taiji got his break in music as a member of Seo Taiji and Boys, the group which featured Yang Hyun-suk, the current leader of YG Entertainment. His most recent album, Quite Night, was headed by the title track Sogyeokdong, a collaboration with singer IU (Youtube; Youtube)[1].

North Korea

President Donald Trump remains slightly ambiguous yet positive on solutions to the North Korea issue. He views North Korea as one of the greatest security risks in the world. In an interview with the Financial Times, President Trump expressed strong indications that he may try to reach a deal with Xi Jinping during their meeting in Florida this week. “China has great influence over North Korea. And they will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won’t,” he said in the interview. The administration accelerated a review of North Korea policy, possibly in order to preview options before the summit. Trump also expressed his strong desire to resolve the issue, even without China’s assistance. In the interview, he hinted at the possibility of solving the issue one-on-one with Pyongyang (Financial Times). There was no indication of a shift in Trump’s thinking on the North Korea issue. For a good analysis of this interview, see this NKNews article.

Notes:

[1] The first link is to the Seotaiji version of the song, while the second is to IU’s. The song is recorded to tell a story from a dual perspective, hence the two music videos and recordings.

Correction:

April 4: A previous rendition of this post incorrectly stated that Seotaiji started in music with Seotaiji and Boys. However, Seotaiji founded his first band, metal group Sinawe, before the founding of Seotaiji and Boys. The band Sinawe was founded when Seotaiji was 14.

Daily Update – March 6

North Korea vs. Malaysia

The diplomatic parlay between Malaysia and North Korea continues to surprise in scope following the assassination of Kim Jong-nam. This weekend, Malaysia expelled North Korean ambassador Kang Chol. Kang left the country on Monday. While leaving, he said that such extreme measures are hurting the relations between the countries (NY Times).

North Korea, on Monday, had a strong reaction. Malaysian ambassador to North Korea Mohamad Nizan Mohamad was declared person non grata and given 48 hours to leave. The irony, however, was that he was already home, having been summoned for a consultation on February 22 (The Star). Pyongyang also went a step further. On Monday, state media declared an exit ban on all Malaysians currently inside North Korea (Yonhap), Malaysia continued the back and forth, placing an exit ban on all North Koreans in Malaysia until Malaysians in North Korea are safely back home. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, in a statement, called North Korea’s actions abhorrent and against international norms (AlJezzera). Though North Korea has never been one to follow the rules, this diplomatic tit-for-tat is very abnormal. As it stands, the murder of Kim Jong-nam, a case which the world may never learn all the answers to, will be a thorn in the side of Malaysian-North Korean relations as each nation accuses the other of the death.

North Korea vs. The World

Over the weekend, North Korea fired off 4 rockets into the ocean, with 3 falling into the Japanese Exclusive Economic Zone; the rockets flew 1000km and reached an altitude of 260km after being fired from the Dongchang-ri test facility, home of the Sohae Launch Station (Korea Times). This is the biggest show of aggression–nuclear tests excluded–since Kim Jung-un took over in 2011.

k2017030600201_main(Image: Map showing the distance of the missiles tested by North Korea. Source: Korea Times)

The reason behind the test is fairly clear, to protest the ongoing military drills in South Korea which will run until April. Before the test, North Korea said, through the Rodong Shinmun, “as long as the drill is not suspended, we will continue to strengthen our national defense capabilities centering on a nuclear force to defend our country” (UPI). Though the motivation behind the test is nothing new, the actual test itself is alarming. Japanese analysts have concluded that North Korea tested a new attack strategy to use against Japan (NY Times). Even North Korea acknowledged this, saying the test was conducted by units who are “tasked to strike the bases of the U.S. imperialist aggression forces in Japan,” (Yonhap).

This brazen provocative behavior has sent leaders pushing to condemn the action. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was the first to condemn the test, filing a strong protest against the action (The Korea Page). President Trump, in a call with acting president Hwang Kyo-ahn reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to Seoul (Hindustan Times). South Korean presidential hopefuls also condemned the test. Moon Jae-in, the leading progressive, urged “the repressive state to immediately stop provocations that are putting the Korean Peninsula in danger.” An Hee-jong said that North Korea could only survive if it becomes a full member of the international community. Other candidates also condemned the test (Korea Times). North Korea responded in typical North Korean fashion, echoing its insistence that the joint drills in South Korea are pushing the region to a nuclear disaster (ABC Austrailia).

It is on the issue of THAAD where South Korea made major moves in light of the test. On Tuesday, parts for the missile defense system started to arrive in South Korea (Bloomberg). This move was met with skepticism by the opposition parties in Korea. The parties all rose questions about the rushed manner of the move, arguing that it was a politically motivated move ahead of the elections (Yonhap). THAAD has long been a contentious domestic debate within South Korea, pitting opposition parties against the ruling party for years. China has been retaliating to the deployment of THAAD in an interesting way. Authorities are shutting down Lotte Marts in China as a possible economic retaliation for the deployment (Joongang Ilbo). THAAD, though necessary, will remain a hard debate in the region. However, as I have previously argued, there may be ways to bolster Chinese and Russian support for the deployment (The Korea Page).